MERCADOS Y ECONOMÍA
El riesgo país argentino se acerca a los 700 puntos: su nivel más alto en un año y las claves de la suba
El indicador de JP Morgan alcanzó los 678 puntos básicos, impulsado por dudas sobre los vencimientos de deuda de 2027, la desaceleración económica y el adelantamiento del debate electoral.
El índice de riesgo país de JP Morgan volvió a escalar, alcanzando los 678 puntos básicos y marcando su nivel más elevado en los últimos doce meses. Este ascenso, que se extiende por séptima rueda consecutiva de caída en los precios de los bonos soberanos, refleja una combinación de factores externos, como la suba de las tasas en Estados Unidos, y crecientes incertidumbres locales que ponen en alerta a los mercados financieros.
Entre las causas principales, los inversores señalan las dudas sobre cómo el Gobierno afrontará los fuertes vencimientos de deuda en moneda extranjera previstos para 2027 y 2028, que superan los 21.000 millones de dólares. A esto se suma el adelantamiento del debate electoral de cara a los comicios presidenciales de 2027, lo que introduce un componente de volatilidad política que el mercado ya empieza a descontar en sus valuaciones.
Por otro lado, la desaceleración en la actividad económica y el consumo genera cautela en Wall Street sobre la sostenibilidad del superávit fiscal a mediano plazo, uno de los pilares de la actual administración. Esta situación se ve reforzada por el alto costo de las tasas de interés que exigen los acreedores para los títulos en dólares (por encima del 12% anual), lo que dificulta el regreso fluido a los mercados voluntarios de deuda.
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